Think The Cops Can Keep You Safe?

There are those who say only the cops should have guns.  To them, the idea of individual citizens owning guns is frightening.  They cannot fathom why any “normal person” would want to own one of those “death machines” that only “belong on the battlefields”.  Those people feel the way they do because they have bought into the lie that has been fed them for so long, the lie told by those in positions of authority that do not want an armed population, the lie that says “the cops will be there to protect you, you do not need guns.”

To the gun control advocates, to the people who think that no citizens should own guns, or at least no semi-auto guns, to the people who place their safety and the safety of their family solely in the hands of law enforcement, to you I say: You have MUCH more faith in law enforcement’s ability to protect you than I do, and I was a law enforcement officer.

Before anyone gets upset, that is not meant as a disparaging remark directed at law enforcement. Despite what the media and some others would have you believe, cops as a whole are good people and they really do care about what happens to most of the population (criminals pretty much excluded).

Well we’ve all heard the saying, “When seconds count, the cops are only minutes away,” and sadly, it really is just that simple.  Let me explain to you my lack of faith in their ability to save me when seconds count. My lack of faith is based on staffing numbers, crime statistics, and as Bill Clinton liked to say, “arithmetic.”

How many cops are there?

For a well known example, I will look at a large city with which we are all familiar, one with a huge police force, and one in which the mayor is notably very anti-gun, New York City. The NYPD is one of the largest police organizations in the United States. In 2013, their official website listed the number of NYPD sworn officers at approximately 34,500 cops. That is a huge number by any stretch of the imagination. BUT, let’s put that number in perspective. According to the most recent available census data (2011), NYC is 468 square miles and has a population of 8,244,910 people. Now for some arithmetic: 8,244,910 / 34,500 = 239 citizens per cop. That is a phenomenal cop to citizen ratio. I honestly have never seen any agency with such a good ratio.

But wait, not all of those 34,500 NYPD cops respond to 9-1-1 calls. According to one source, in 2013, over 5,000 of them were detectives and more than 4,500 were sergeants. According to the same source, the NYPD only has 23,000 “police officers.” All the rest of that 34,500 sworn employees were rank detective or higher. Considering it is the police officers responding to calls, let us re-examine those numbers: 8,244,910 / 23,000 = 358 citizens to every “police officer.” And please bear in mind, that is just raw numbers. I will break that down even more in a few moments.

For a specific example which I am quite familiar with, I looked at the agency for whom I worked. Said agency serves a large metropolitan city with an equal distribution of urban development and rural area, covering a total of 836 square miles. In that 836 square mile area, the population as of 2010 (most recent number at the time I wrote this) was 618,962. That population is served by a law enforcement agency that has 2,017 total number of sworn cops. Taking that total number of cops, let’s do some math: 618,962 / 2,017 = 306.8 citizens per cop. Not bad, not NYPD, but not bad. But now lets break that down to the real numbers.

Of that agency’s 2,017 cops, many work in the jails (far more work in corrections than any other area), the courts, the airport, administrative jobs and other various details. The actual number of cops assigned to patrol duties, the people that respond to calls for service, is a whopping 291. Here comes that old arithmetic again: 618,962 / 291 = 2,127 citizens per cop. That’s right, 2,127 people for every street cop employed.

But hold onto your hats. Now let us dissect that even further. Those 291 street cops work four (4) days a week, and are split up amongst five (5) overlapping shifts. At any time of the day, at least 2 of those shifts are on the street. For mathematical simplicity, I am going to split the number of cops evenly amongst the shifts: 291 / 5 = 58.2 cops. Ok, now take that number and divide by 1.75 (since they work 4 out of 7 days a week): 58.2 / 1.75 = 33.25 cops.

Mathematically speaking, at any time of the day, the entire population of this large area is being policed by 33.25 deputies. What does that number work out to now? 618,962 / 33.25 = 18,615 citizens per working street cop.

Let me say again, that is 18,615 people per every working street cop.

I can only imagine if we were to examine the NYPD, at least two thirds of their sworn personnel are assigned to duties other than patrol and do not respond to calls for service. National average for citizen/cop ratios is somewhere near 1000 citizens to 1.5 cops, but please remember, those statistics are based on the total number of sworn officers on each department, not based on the actual number of cops working and responding to calls, which is a significantly lower number.

Make you feel all safe, warm and cozy inside? Still insist that the cops are better able to protect you and your family than you are?

How quickly can we get to you in your moment of need

Now that we have an understanding of how few cops are actually on the streets at a given time, let us look at law enforcement response times. Bear in mind, in order to get the cops to respond to your emergency, you actually have to have the time to make that 9-1-1 call, and get the chance to speak to the call taker, and have enough time to explain what is happening to you.

According to research, the national average response time for law enforcement, to high priority emergency calls, is between 5 and 6 minutes. In some larger cities, that time is nearly double the average. Lots of things contribute to response times, but one thing is for certain, you can count on being solo, potentially fighting for your life, for a minimum of 5 minutes.

So, you do not think that sounds like a long time? Want to know how long 5 minutes is? Start a timer and then hang from a pull-up bar one handed for 5 minutes. If you want to add some extra realism, have someone start punching you in the gut. Now imagine fighting for your life during that entire time, knowing that at the best, the cops might be there when that 5 minute timer rings.

On the other hand, picture yourself armed with your choice of firearm. Statistically speaking, most of the time that guns are used in self-defense they are merely displayed scaring off the attacker. With that said, if you find yourself in one of the statistical outliers, and the attacker is not dissuaded by the fact that you are armed, would you rather be armed or unarmed while being attacked by someone so intent on injuring, raping or killing you that they are willing to risk their own life? Do you want that person having their way with you for 7 minutes while you wait for the cops to respond?

I cannot answer those questions for you; I can only tell you that I will always be armed to be better able to protect myself, my family, and anyone else who may need my protection. If you honestly believe that you are not capable or responsible enough to shoulder the burden of arming yourself, then I commend you for being honest, but I ask that you not project your personal decision onto others who are willing and able to do so. That other person may just be the one there to save your bacon one day when you need them.

The next time someone tells you that the cops are the only people that should have guns, feel free to give them an arithmetic lesson! Also, be sure to point out to them that while they may think that, most cops disagree.

As always, your questions and comments are welcome.  Be safe out there, and remember your ABC’s: Always Be Carrying.
– Matt

This piece was originally written in June, 2013 for The Bang Switch, but was edited and updated September 27, 2019 for Cops Supporting Gun Rights